How President Trump can still win the US election
Recent polls suggest Joe Biden has a significant and steady lead over Republican Donald Trump in this year's presidential race in both national preference and key swing-state surveys.
Due to record-shattering fundraising, the Democrat also has a sizeable financial advantage, which means he'll be able to blanket the airwaves with his campaign message in the final weeks.
Electoral analysts have been increasing their odds that Trump will lose his re-election bid. Nate Silver's Fivethirtyeight.com blog currently has Biden with an 87% chance of winning, while Decision Desk HQ puts him at 83.5%.
How is Trump doing in the polls?
If all of this is painfully familiar to Democrats, it should be. At a similar point four years ago, Hillary Clinton was also predicted to have a high likelihood of victory. They remember how that turned out.
Could history repeat itself with another Trump victory?
The polls are wrong
Practically since Biden secured the Democratic Party's presidential nomination, national polls have given him a steady lead over Trump. Even in key swing states, which have shown a tighter race, Biden has demonstrated a consistent lead frequently outside the margin of error.
As 2016 demonstrated, however, national leads are irrelevant and state-level polls can miss the mark.
Predicting what a presidential electorate will look like -that is, who will actually show up to cast a ballot -is a challenge in every election, and some pollsters got it wrong last time, undercounting the number of white, non-college-educated voters who would turn out for Trump.
Although the New York Times predicts Biden's current margins would protect him from even a 2016-level misfire, pollsters have some new obstacles to overcome in 2020.
Many Americans, for instance, are planning to vote by mail for the first time. Republicans are already promising to aggressively challenge mail-in ballots to prevent what they say could be the potential for widespread fraud -something Democrats have said is really an effort at voter suppression.
If voters fill out their forms incorrectly or do not follow proper procedure, or there is delay or disruption in mail delivery, it could lead to otherwise valid ballots being discarded. Understaffed or limited in-person polling places could also make it more difficult to vote on election day, discouraging Americans who had been considered by pollsters to be "likely voters."
(Adapted from https://www.bbc.com/news/election-us-2020-54561411)
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